The global economic superpower is not immune to worldwide turbulence. According to the latest projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the U.S. economy will experience a significant slowdown, with a downward revision in its growth forecast for next year.
The IMF projects that U.S. GDP will decelerate to 2.1% in 2026, a figure well below the initially forecasted 2.8%. This downward correction, combined with revised inflation expectations, points to a clear negative supply shock, the Fund noted.
One of the reasons behind this trend is the likely impact of new tariffs imposed by Donald Trump’s administration, which are being passed on to consumers through higher prices—something that had previously remained moderate.
Beyond tariff transmission, the IMF also highlighted another major source of supply-side strain: the tightening of immigration policies.
This tightening is reducing the labor supply from foreign-born workers, directly affecting the country’s production potential.
However, the IMF emphasized a delicate balance: the impact of the smaller labor supply has been partly offset by a slowdown in both production and demand, following three years of strong employment growth. The result is a labor market that appears stable, with the unemployment rate remaining virtually unchanged.
The IMF also noted that financial conditions remain broadly favorable, thanks in part to the dollar’s strong performance. Additionally, investment in artificial intelligence (AI) continues to surge, which, together with a moderately expansionary fiscal policy, is expected to support activity through 2026.
The global power will begin to feel the consequences of its own tariffs.